Super El Niño sets record with sea-surface temperatures 0.9°C above average

A “super El Niño” has hit the tropical Pacific, with sea‑surface temperatures now 0.9 °C above the long‑term average, the strongest anomaly on record for any El Niño event, according to NOAA and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society. The heat surge, confirmed on 22 September 2024, pushed the region into a new benchmark that surpasses the 1997‑98 event, which was long considered the most intense.

El Niño is a natural climate pattern that warms the central and eastern Pacific every few years, reshaping global weather. This cycle has grown more extreme as the planet warms, with climate models linking stronger, longer‑lasting events to rising greenhouse gases. The current episode began in May, following an unusually warm winter in the Southern Hemisphere that set the stage for rapid oceanic heating. A persistent high‑pressure ridge over the western Pacific has trapped heat, while weakened trade winds have allowed warm water to spread eastward, amplifying the anomaly.

Scientists warn the record heat will ripple worldwide. In the United States, the National Weather Service expects a higher likelihood of a wet winter in the southern tier and a drier, colder season in the Pacific Northwest. In Southeast Asia, the Indian Ocean dipole is projected to turn negative, threatening droughts in Indonesia and severe flooding in the Philippines. Global agricultural markets are already reacting; wheat futures rose 3 % after analysts flagged potential yield losses in Australia and South America. Coral reefs in the equatorial Pacific are experiencing bleaching at unprecedented rates, and marine biologists say the stress could push some species toward local extinction.

The next two months will determine whether the ocean can shed the excess heat before the next La Niña phase. Climate agencies are urging governments to prepare for heightened flood and fire risks, and to accelerate climate‑adaptation plans. If the anomaly persists, it could set a new baseline for future El Niño events, underscoring how climate change is reshaping even the most familiar natural cycles.