Another college football season projection which favors Notre Dame with MATH

Notre Dame is getting its fair share of preseason hype — which is going to just annoy the hell out of the Irish haters out there. One pundit who’s been known to be an Irish hater, but is actually just a math nerd (with all love and respect, respectfully) is ESPN’s Bill Connelly who is the creator of the SP+ index.

The Irish are 3rd right now in the SP+ (OFF 3, DEF 9, SOS 62) which projects Notre Dame to be right where we all want them to be come time for the CFP.

This year, the two marquee games don’t come until Weeks 7 (at BYU) and 10 (Miami at home), and the question marks are minimal. CJ Carr could be the nation’s best QB , and coordinator Chris Ash’s defense returns 14 of the 20 players who saw at least 200 snaps and adds four solid transfers. The Irish are projected favorites of at least 17.4 points in 10 games. If they are reliant on the CFP committee to let them in, that’s on them.

With Carr, leading receiver Jordan Faison , 2024 playoff hero Jaden Greathouse and players responsible for 41 of 60 offensive line starts returning, Mike Denbrock’s offense has the basics covered. The Irish will need some new burst in the skill corps, though, without running backs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price and receiver Malachi Fields . It’s easy to assume that some combination of RB Aneyas Williams (9.3 yards per carry), Greathouse (14.1 yards per catch in 2024), sophomore WR Micah Gilbert , young Ohio State receiver transfers Mylan Graham and Quincy Porter , and any number of recent blue-chippers could provide the necessary pop, but we’ll still need to see it happen.

The defense could stand to see a bit more disruption. Notre Dame ranked only 57th in stuff rate (run stops at or behind the line) and 25th in sack rate; the leaders in both categories — edge men Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa and Boubacar Traore — return, but they could use help. Tackle Francis Brewu (Pitt) made 10 run stops last season, and pass rushers Bryce Young and Keon Keeley ( Alabama ) had high pressure rates that suggest sacks are coming. And we know the secondary will be fantastic. Corners Leonard Moore and Christian Gray combined for seven interceptions and 20 pass breakups despite each missing a couple of games, and safeties Adon Shuler and Tae Johnson are dynamite as well. Johnson is one of a few sophomores capable of taking a leap in development.

Freeman addressed another key issue — place-kicking — with the addition of Purdue’s Spencer Porath . On paper, it appears he has checked every box, and I’m guessing the chip on Notre Dame’s shoulder from last year’s snub could come in handy, too. But the Irish’s preseason strength of schedule, per SP+, comes in at just 62nd thanks to only three projected top-50 opponents. That’s not good enough, both because it might give the committee less to nitpick and, well, the Irish should simply be getting challenged more. But I will be floored if this team isn’t both playing in, and threatening to win, the CFP.