Anthropic could beat Elon Musk's SpaceX for largest 2026 IPO, prediction markets show

Anthropic ( ANTH.PVT ) isn't even public yet, and people are already predicting it will beat out Elon Musk's SpaceX ( SPCX ) for the largest IPO of the year.

Prediction market odds show Anthropic quickly closing the gap with SpaceX for the largest IPO of 2026 as its revenue growth accelerates into a potential fourth quarter market debut, according to Polymarket data. Bloomberg reported late Monday that Anthropic's annualized revenue for 2026 is on track to top $65 billion, up from a $47 billion pace in May.

OpenAI ( OPAI.PVT ) — Anthropic's arch-rival that could also make a market debut later this year — isn't showing up in Polymarket's data as a contender for the largest IPO of 2026.

The company officially priced its stock at $135 on June 11, offering 555.6 million shares. The pricing valued SpaceX at $1.78 trillion.

SpaceX made its historic public debut on the Nasdaq on June 12, when the stock officially opened for trading around midday at $150 per share.

Driven by heavy demand from both institutional and retail investors, the stock steadily climbed throughout the session before closing its first day at $160.95.

This successful 19.2% gain from its initial offering price instantly catapulted SpaceX to a massive $2.1 trillion market capitalization.

Shares went on to peak around $225 a few weeks later, only to hit lows around $104 as investors fretted about lockup expirations and capital expenditure plans.