Are Iran, US really close to a breakthrough ‘deal’?

US President Donald Trump has a busy weekend ahead. The football World Cup has returned to the country after three decades; the White House is preparing for a UFC bout to mark Trump’s 80th birthday on Sunday; then, he will fly to the French Alps for a G7 summit.

But amid the pageantry, Trump is chasing a pivotal moment of his presidency as well: a deal with Iran that he says is imminent, but which Tehran has since cautioned on.

Shortly after threatening to take control of Iran’s prized Kharg island oil facility , which processes 90 percent of Iran’s crude exports, Trump said he had called off strikes on the country as a deal with Tehran was close and could even be signed over the weekend.

Tehran acknowledged that discussions were taking place, but that a final decision on the proposed deal had not been reached, and listed a number of challenges in the way.

Any “deal” agreed now, analysts say, will not be a final peace agreement, but an understanding to keep the ceasefire going while deeper negotiations take place.

Since the US and Israel started the war by attacking Iran in late February, Trump has claimed nearly 40 times that a deal with Iran was imminent. But after months of lurching from one crisis to another – and several exchanges of fire between the two sides this week alone – diplomacy has continued.

Direct talks between the US and Iran collapsed nearly as soon as they started in Islamabad in April, but the two sides have since exchanged a series of proposals and counterproposals for peace via Pakistani mediators.

So, what is the “deal” Trump is announcing to end a war that has negatively hit the president’s approval ratings, and brought about the worst energy crisis in modern history?