As 26-Year Stock Market Milestone Approaches, History Points to What Comes Next
Written by Dave Kovaleski for The Motley Fool -> In July, the Shiller P/E ratio hit 40.91, the highest it's been since August 2000. In the past, when the Shiller P/E ratio has spiked to unusually h…
In July, the Shiller P/E ratio hit 40.91, the highest it's been since August 2000.
In the past, when the Shiller P/E ratio has spiked to unusually high levels, a market crash has followed.
The last time the Shiller P/E ratio, also known as the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, or CAPE ratio, was this high, Bill Clinton was president. In July 2026, the Shiller CAPE ratio hit 40.91, the highest since August 2000, almost 26 years ago.
For perspective, the median CAPE ratio since 2000 is roughly 27. Over the past 50 years, it's been around 20, and the long-term average dating back to the 1870s is 17. The highest it ever reached was 44.19 in November of 1999.
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So, we are clearly in unusual times, but why does this matter, and what happens next?
The Shiller CAPE ratio is considered by many to be the truest measure of the valuation of the stock market. Rather than taking a 12-month snapshot, the CAPE ratio (invented by economist Robert J. Shiller) gauges the earnings of the S&P 500 in relation to its price over the past 10 years, with figures adjusted for inflation. This provides a longer-term look at the valuation of large-cap stocks, smoothing out any short-term spikes or dips.
If you look back at history, you can learn a few things about what happens when the CAPE ratio spikes.
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