Australia’s deaths to outnumber births by 2060s, report says

Australia will see more deaths than births by the 2060s, hitting a milestone already surpassed by advanced economies including Japan, Germany and France, according to a government report.

In its latest Intergenerational Report released on Monday, Australia’s Treasury forecast that the country’s population will hit 39.3 million by 2065-66, 1.8 million lower than projected in its last outlook in 2023.

The Treasury said it expects population growth to average 0.9 percent annually over the next four decades, compared with 1.4 percent over the prior 40 years.

The number of Australians aged 85 or older is projected to triple by 2065-66, with immigration accounting for all population growth as the fertility rate falls to 1.34, the Treasury said.

Despite plunging birthrates, the Treasury said it expects the economy to more than double in size by the mid-2060s, citing productivity gains due to artificial intelligence and greater workforce participation by women and older Australians.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers said that while Australia’s economy faces serious risks due to the demographic shift, it also holds “substantial” advantages compared with its peers.

“The report confirms Australia is better placed and better prepared to deal with rapid change than most countries, but despite our advantages we cannot be complacent,” Chalmers said in a statement accompanying the report.

The outlook comes as Australia, whose economic growth is largely dependent on migration-driven population growth, grapples with deteriorating living standards amid a long-term slowdown in labour productivity.