Aviation industry looks skywards as leaders fly in for Rio summit

Oil tankers may be stuck behind strait of Hormuz, but holding the Iata AGM in Brazil defies warnings of impending shortages

Nothing says jet fuel crisis, as one prospective attender put it, like flying everyone to Rio de Janeiro. Aviation leaders will converge in Brazil this weekend for the Iata AGM, the annual global airline summit, with the industry still, for the most part, looking resolutely skyward.

The oil tankers may still be stuck behind the strait of Hormuz as the conflict between the US, Israel and Iran flickers on, but for now, airlines continue to defy dire warnings of impending shortages which had stoked fears of a summer of chaos for European holidaymakers.

If the AGM acts as a barometer of the aviation industry’s boom and bust, choosing to hold a gathering in Rio might have been read as the good times rolling again, not least because the event was abandoned during the Covid years and then held online.

Rio was announced as host city at the last summit in Delhi, which was addressed personally by the prime minister, Narendra Modi, underlining aviation’s importance in India . Global air traffic had rebounded and jet fuel was just over $80 a barrel then. Despite the slide down from last month’s peak, it remains over $140 a barrel.

According to the aviation analysts Cirium, jet fuel was just over a quarter of global airlines’ costs in 2025 – and every dollar on a barrel adds the best part of $3bn to the annual fuel bill. About 6% of available seats were removed from airline schedules worldwide over the last month, with costs high and demand uncertain.

European carriers, originally seen as among the most exposed, have largely kept flying full schedules, with the lucrative peak season ahead. New sources of kerosene in the US and West Africa have been found, with supply chains responding to the premium on jet fuel.

On Friday, the EU’s transport commissioner, Apostolos Tzitzikostas, further allayed concerns . “There is currently no jet fuel shortage in Europe. We have no signs that we will have a shortage in the coming period,” he told Reuters.