Bowen: Trump and Netanyahu wanted to reshape the Middle East - now they risk a permacrisis

Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu believed that victory over Iran would reshape the Middle East.

The region is being reshaped. But not in the way they expected. The Islamic Republic of Iran has not been defeated. The risk now is of a long, attritional permacrisis that will lurch in and out of outright conflict.

The Iranian regime has proved to be a much harder nut to crack than Trump and Netanyahu had assumed. Their judgement was wrong, and they have lost control of the consequences.

The latest of those is Iran's downing of the US Apache helicopter . It is another reminder that Iran's rulers can still hurt the Americans and will not budge in their determination to come out of this war on top. For them, victory equals survival and enhanced deterrence, in the shape of acknowledgement of their control of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most strategic waterways.

The president and his generals will try to calibrate their response to the loss of the helicopter, to show just as emphatically that they cannot be pushed around, but at the same time to preserve the sluggish and so far unproductive diplomatic process. The Apache's crew survived. Had they been killed, a much harsher response would have been likely.

Trump has been banking on a deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and agree the terms of much longer-term talks over the big issues, starting with Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium and its wider nuclear plans.

The war is unpopular in America and he wants a way out he can present as a victory. It is proving to be a tough challenge.

Trump and Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyau are learning an old lesson.