Can the agreement between Iran and the US be rescued?
Latest attacks jeopardise ceasefire and memorandum of understanding. United States President Donald Trump declared that the agreement pausing the war with Iran was over this week – and ordered a seri
Latest attacks jeopardise ceasefire and memorandum of understanding. United States President Donald Trump declared that the agreement pausing the war
Read Full Story at Al Jazeera →Why This Matters
The survival of any tentative ceasefire between Iran and the US hinges on fragile diplomatic channels that have repeatedly collapsed under pressure from hardliners on both sides. A breakdown here risks not just another cycle of escalation but could redefine Middle East power dynamics, reshaping alliances from Baghdad to Jerusalem.
Background Context
Previous attempts at de-escalation—including the 2023 Qatar-mediated talks—foundered on mutual distrust, with each side accusing the other of exploiting pauses to regroup militarily. The current framework, though informal, has until now relied on backchannel communications to avoid the catastrophic miscalculations that nearly triggered direct conflict in 2020.
What Happens Next
The next 72 hours will determine whether third-party mediators can broker a face-saving compromise or if tit-for-tat strikes will spiral into a broader campaign. Analysts warn that a prolonged stalemate could push regional actors like Israel and Saudi Arabia toward unilateral preemptive actions, further narrowing Washington’s room for maneuver.
Bigger Picture
This episode underscores the erosion of deterrence architectures that once contained proxy wars in the region, with both Tehran and Washington increasingly prioritizing symbolic victories over strategic restraint. The pattern mirrors broader shifts toward ad-hoc arrangements over formal treaties, reflecting a world where traditional diplomacy is outpaced by real-time escalation.
