Can the AU make its current Sudan mission count?

A delegation from the African Union (AU) began a two-day field visit to Sudan on Sunday, seeking to push efforts towards a ceasefire, improve humanitarian access and revive a political process to end the war that has killed tens of thousands and displaced millions in the past three years.

The AU Peace and Security Council (PSC) is engaging with Sudanese authorities and other parties in the conflict, addressing humanitarian aid access and prospects for a political settlement. The PSC decided earlier this year to undertake the mission to contribute to efforts towards lasting peace and stability.

The delegation arrives at a difficult point in the war. The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have regained control of much of the capital, Khartoum while the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) remain entrenched across much of Darfur in western Sudan. Kordofan, the region linking central, western and southern parts of the country, has become another major theatre for fighting.

The SAF’s gains around the capital have changed the military balance, but neither side has achieved a decisive victory. That leaves the AU trying to advance diplomacy while both forces still believe they can improve their positions on the battlefield.

The PSC’s priorities are closely connected: pushing the SAF and RSF towards a ceasefire, improving humanitarian access and preserving a political process that can determine Sudan’s future beyond the two armed groups.

The AU has repeatedly called for an inclusive, Sudanese-led political process because stopping the fighting alone would not resolve the crisis that preceded the war.

Sudan’s transition after the 2019 overthrow of longtime ruler Omar al-Bashir collapsed amid disputes between civilian groups and the military. In October 2021, the military dissolved the civilian-military power-sharing arrangement, deepening tensions over the country’s future. The war began in April 2023 after months of rivalry between the SAF and RSF over the proposed transition to civilian rule.

The AU faces a two-track challenge: reducing the fighting enough to allow humanitarian assistance and negotiations, while ensuring any settlement is not simply an agreement between two armed factions over power and territory.