Oil, gold swings jolt TSX ahead of U.S. data

Canadian stocks are expected to open mixed Monday as oil and gold prices swing, with traders on edge over fresh uncertainty about the Strait of Hormuz and a busy week of U.S. and Canadian data just days away.

The mood on Bay Street is cautious after Tehran said it will keep the Strait of Hormuz shut until Washington meets its demands, stoking fears of another oil-supply shock. Futures tracking West Texas Intermediate crude are up 1.6% at $79.43 a barrel, but gold is slightly lower at $4,393 an ounce and silver is firmer at $64.27. Last Friday, the S&P/TSX Composite closed at a record 36,381.23, up 0.7%, driven by a 6.6% jump in gold stocks as the metal’s price rose.

Traders are also bracing for a slew of key reports this week, including U.S. jobless claims and Canadian inflation data, which could shift bets on interest-rate cuts. Earnings season is still rolling, so individual companies—not the broad market—will set the tone for much of the session. Asian shares rose overnight after U.S. data showed employers unexpectedly cut jobs in July, easing fears of an immediate Federal Reserve hike, but gains were capped by the renewed Middle East tensions.

What happens next hinges on whether oil markets tighten further and whether gold’s recent rally fades. A prolonged shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz could lift crude prices and ripple through Canadian energy shares, while softer bullion could weigh on gold miners. With so many economic releases due, the coming days will tell if Bay Street’s record highs can hold—or if caution turns to pullback.