CFTC says prediction markets' 'mentions' contracts present a higher risk of manipulation

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission advised some of its regulated entities on Tuesday that prediction markets' "mentions" contracts are at greater risk of manipulation.

In a press release announcing the letter it sent to designated contract market entities, the CFTC said that the contracts are more susceptible to exploitation "because their settlement turns on the discrete conduct of a person that may be neither independently generated nor externally verifiable."

The letter noted that the agency was not creating new obligations that regulated exchanges need to follow, but rather advising entities on when mention markets may be listed consistent with the Commodity Exchange Act, the law that governs the assets that the CFTC regulates.

Mention markets — which are made up of contracts that ask traders what specific words will be used in a speech, a corporate earnings call or during a television broadcast — have come under scrutiny by the CFTC. CNBC reported in August that the agency was conducting an internal review into the contract type, and that platform Kalshi pulled its sports-related mention markets in response to the inquiry.

Kalshi is one of the few U.S. regulated platforms that features mention markets. Its chief rival, Polymarket, only features them on its international exchange, which is not regulated by the CFTC.

"We've addressed this guidance based on a prior discussion with the CFTC," Kalshi spokesperson Elisabeth Diana said in a statement.

Mention markets also generated headlines in July after news reports that a longtime teleprompter operator for President Donald Trump profited off of trades on Kalshi related to contracts on mention markets that were tied to the president's statements. Gabriel Perez, the teleprompter operator, settled with the CFTC in August and was forced to pay a $172,539 fine for insider trading on a prediction market.

In the letter, the CFTC advised that exchanges listing mention markets should consider four factors: what outside obligations the subject of the mention market may have; external pressure that could influence the subject's speech or conduct; whether the words or actions used for settlement are independently verifiable; and whether there are adequate oversight measures in place to detect manipulation on the contracts.