Chet Holmgren and the $240 million disappearing act

Chet Holmgren took two shots in Game 7 of the Western Conference finals. And he didn’t attempt a third after Victor Wembanyama rose up and detonated on him for one of the most violent dunks of these playoffs:

The poster was so emphatic it seemed to physically eliminate Holmgren. He just sort of stopped existing. Bobbled passes. Tripped over his own feet. Drifted into the corners and stayed there. Holmgren was so horrible that a debate was sparked on social media regarding his future in Oklahoma City .

It’s a worthy conversation. Even if Wemby wasn’t lurking, Holmgren looked incapable of scoring against other San Antonio defenders. It was illuminating how bad he was.

It’s also not the first time Holmgren has been a shrinking violet on offense:

In 2022, Holmgren averaged 12.8 points on 13% shooting from 3 in five conference tournament and NCAA tournament games for Gonzaga.

In 2024, Holmgren shot 22% from 3 in Oklahoma City’s 2024 second-round series loss against Dallas .

In 2025, Holmgren was terrible offensively in the NBA Finals against Indiana . He averaged only 12.3 points on 47% from 2-point range and 16% from 3.

Chet is now 30% from 3 in 48 career playoff games. Down from 37% for the regular season. His shooting isn’t translating to the playoffs and he has shown no signs of being a shot creator. Now his five-year, $240 million max is about to kick in.