Clacton by-election: Farage may win the town, but can he win the country?

As Reform UK is beset by financial scandals, the populist party’s rise is in doubt.

Several polls have shown the populist force lagging behind the governing Labour Party, while electorally, it has been defeated in by-elections in Makerfield and Gorton and Denton and in the race last month for mayor of Greater Manchester.

Until recently, Reform led most surveys. On Monday, Ipsos polling put Labour ahead of Reform UK. Twenty-eight percent said they would vote Labour at the next general election, compared with 25 percent for Reform, 18 percent for the Conservatives and 12 percent for the Greens.

“History offers us absolutely no guide to how this may play out.” the respected UK election guru John Curtice of Strathclyde University told Al Jazeera, “The UK’s politics have never been so fragmented, so there’s no precedent for any of what we’re seeing now.”

While Reform’s chances of winning the next general election may be slimmer, Farage is set to claim one victory this week. More than 70 percent are expected to back Farage in Thursday’s by-election in Clacton-on-Sea, the coastal town in Essex in southeast England that propelled him to parliament two years ago.

While under pressure, Farage quit as a member of parliament for Clacton last month, forcing the August 13 vote.

But Curtice noted that “it’s very hard to disentangle the polling for a party from its leader … Reform’s (overall) decline started with Nigel Farage announcing that he was resigning his seat and putting the question over his accusations to the people of Clacton on July 7 . Up to that point, they were averaging around 27 percent. Afterwards, that’s been around 24 percent.”

Tapping into popular discontent over migration and anger at the UK’s traditional two-party system of Conservative and Labour – which had presided over one of the most dramatic slides in living standards in living memory – Reform’s rise appeared all but guaranteed.