Could Nvidia Reach a $10 Trillion Market Cap? I Think So. And It Will Happen Faster Than You Think.
Written by Keithen Drury for The Motley Fool -> Demand for Nvidia's GPUs appears insatiable. Nvidia's valuation is in line with those of its peers. Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) is the only company ever to reach a $5 trillion market cap. While there are a few milestones between its cu
Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) is the only company ever to reach a $5 trillion market cap. While there are a few milestones between its current price and a $10 trillion valuation, that one may be the next major milestone investors will be looking toward. But just how quickly could Nvidia essentially double in size again (if it can do that at all)?
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Nvidia makes graphics processing units (GPUs), which have been the primary artificial intelligence (AI) computing unit of choice thus far. Because they are parallel processors, they are ideally suited for handling certain types of highly complex tasks that can be broken down into a host of smaller problems that can be solved independently and simultaneously. Those happen to be exactly the sorts of workloads that are most common in AI training. The benefits are amplified when thousands of GPUs are connected in a computing cluster. Gigantic data centers can house hundreds of thousands of GPUs, and that is now the amount of power required to train and run the latest AI models.
So whenever you hear an AI hyperscaler discuss how much money they're spending on data center capital expenditures, your mind should immediately shift to considering what chunk of that money is flowing to Nvidia. For 2026, the four major AI hyperscalers forecast that their combined capital expenditure bill will total $650 billion. That reflects a massive buildup, and the total figure actually ticked up a bit after their Q1 earnings reports.
During its conference call last month, Nvidia noted that analysts predicted the hyperscaler capex would top $1 trillion in 2027. That's a major increase, but how much of that will wind up in Nvidia's coffers?
For Nvidia's fiscal 2027 (which ends in January 2027), Wall Street analysts estimate Nvidia will generate $391 billion in revenue. Not all of that will come from data centers, and other AI companies outside the big four hyperscalers are also buying Nvidia GPUs. Still, it's safe to say that Nvidia tends to capture a large chunk of hyperscalers' planned spending. That trend should persist into its fiscal 2028, with the average analyst estimating revenue of $548 billion.
So growth will continue for Nvidia, but will it rise to a $10 trillion market cap?
Any company could become a $10 trillion company if investors were willing to pay any price for the stock. Currently, Nvidia trades for about 34 times trailing earnings, which isn't an unreasonable valuation. Indeed, it has traded at higher ones for most of the past couple of years.
