Mary Peltola leads Alaska Senate race, eyes historic Democratic win

Former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola is now the frontrunner to win Alaska’s U.S. Senate seat, according to an NBC News Decision Desk analysis released Thursday as the state continues to tally votes. Peltola, a former Alaska House member and the first Alaska Native elected to Congress, is leading the race against incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan in a contest that has been too close to call for days. The decision desk, which uses a statistical model to project outcomes, gave Peltola a 92 percent chance of victory, a margin that has shifted the narrative from a nail‑biting dead heat to a likely Democratic pickup.

The race matters because Alaska has not sent a Democrat to the Senate since Mark Begich’s defeat in 2014, and the state’s single Senate seat could tip the balance in a closely divided chamber. Peltola’s candidacy also reflects a broader shift in Alaska politics, where a 2020 ballot measure introduced a nonpartisan top‑two primary and ranked‑choice voting for general elections. That system forced both major parties to field multiple candidates in the August primary, ultimately leaving Peltola and Sullivan as the final two. Her campaign has emphasized climate‑resilient fisheries, Indigenous rights, and a pragmatic approach to energy, resonating with voters who grew increasingly wary of extreme partisanship. Fundraising totals show Peltola closing the gap, with her campaign reporting $7.2 million raised, compared with Sullivan’s $9.8 million, and a surge in small‑donor contributions in the final weeks.

If the count holds, Peltola’s win would give Democrats a modest boost in the Senate and could influence key committee assignments and the passage of legislation in the final months of the 118th Congress. State officials are expected to certify the results within the next week, though a narrow margin could trigger an automatic recount under Alaska law. Both campaigns have pledged to respect the final outcome, and Peltola has already hinted at focusing on bipartisan infrastructure projects and protecting the state’s fisheries if she takes office. The next few days will determine whether Alaska’s historic shift from a Republican stronghold to a more competitive battleground becomes a reality.