Democrat Talarico leads Paxton by 4 points in Texas Senate race

Democrats are gaining ground in Texas, a state long dominated by Republicans, as new polls show Democratic Senate hopeful James Talarico leading his Republican rival, state Attorney General Ken Paxton, ahead of the November midterm elections.

Fresh surveys released Friday by Texas Pulse, a nonpartisan research initiative from the Texas A&M Bush School, indicate Talarico now holds a four-point lead with 47 percent support, up from a tie in June. A second poll by YouGov and 254 Labs, released Thursday, shows a similar margin, with Talarico at 48 percent and Paxton at 45 percent. Independent voters are breaking sharply toward Talarico, with 57 percent favoring him over Paxton, and 68 percent of independents supporting him in a late-July Fox News poll. Paxton, endorsed by former President Donald Trump, has faced scrutiny over corruption allegations and an impeachment trial, which may be eroding his appeal among moderate Republicans.

Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office in over 30 years, but this year’s Senate race is unusually competitive. Paxton defeated incumbent Senator John Cornyn in the Republican primary, but his legal troubles—including impeachment and ongoing federal investigations—have raised doubts about his electability. Analysts say the tight race reflects a broader shift in Texas, where growing urban and suburban support for Democrats is chipping away at Republican dominance.

If Democrats flip the Senate, they could block parts of Trump’s agenda in his final two years in office. But the upper chamber is harder to flip than the House, where all 435 seats are up for grabs. Every Senate race matters. A Democratic win in Texas would signal a major shift in a state that has been a Republican stronghold for decades, potentially redrawing the political map ahead of future elections.