Grain exports stall as Ukraine steps up attacks on Russia's Black Sea ports

When Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke in 2014 about Russia's motives for annexing the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea , and thus violating international law, he justified it by saying: "We could not allow NATO forces to eventually come to the land of Crimea and Sevastopol, the land of Russian military glory, and cardinally change the balance of forces in the Black Sea area."

What now? Intensified Ukrainian attacks on Novorossiysk, Russia's largest commercial Black Sea port, have caused significant disruptions to oil and grain shipments in recent weeks. The Russian navy no longer dominates the region. And exporting goods via the Black Sea is becoming increasingly difficult for Russia because of Ukraine's drone strikes. It is only possible to reorganize logistics partially.

If the attacks continue at such intensity, the consequences for Russian exporters and the national budget could be significant, experts told DW.

Novorossiysk has been a major hub for Russian exports since the 19th century and even today it remains Russia's largest port in terms of cargo volume, as well as one of the largest in Europe. Up to a third of Russia's grain exports are handled through the hub, which is located close to the country's major agricultural regions. Crude oil, metals and containerized goods also pass through the port.

Recent Ukrainian maritime and aerial drone attacks have severely disrupted shipments, particularly of grain. Andrei Sisov, the head of SovEcon, a research and consulting firm specialized in agriculture, uses Telegram to follow the developments. On August 12, he posted that the Novorossiysk Bread Products Plant (NKHP ) — one of Russia's largest grain export terminals — and the Novorossiysk grain terminal had ceased operations. A day later, KSK, one of Russia's largest deep-water grain terminals, also halted its operations. Operations at a major grain terminal in Taman had already come to a standstill at the end of July. Prior to that, Ukraine paralyzed operations at the shallow-water ports of the Sea of Azov.

At the time of publication, only Tuapse, the smallest of Russia's deep-water grain terminals, was still in operation. "This means that virtually all Russian grain exports via the Azov-Black Sea basin are blocked," Sisov said.

The situation regarding oil exports is not quite as dramatic but while they have not come to a complete standstill, they are frequently disrupted. According to the British news agency Reuters, the Sheskharis terminal — Russia's main oil export facility on the Black Sea , handling some 700,000 barrels of crude oil per day — halted loadings on August 14, which resumed only two days later.

According to London-based Argus Media, a global energy and commodity price reporting agency, Russia could have 45 million metric tons of wheat — Russia's main agricultural export good — for export in 2026 to 2027. However, the situation in the Black Sea, through which about 90% of shipments are usually routed, will make it almost impossible to supply the global market.