How Brexit has made Britain poorer – in charts

Forecasters were wrong about an immediate recession but right that we would be worse off outside the EU

As the 10th anniversary of the Brexit vote approaches, the verdict on Britain’s economic performance is clear: voting to leave has resulted in severe costs for households and businesses.

The immediate recession predicted in the Treasury forecasts ordered by George Osborne – dubbed “ project fear ” by the Leave campaign – did not happen. The impact from the Covid pandemic, wars in Ukraine and Iran, and Donald Trump’s trade battles also cloud the picture.

But experts agree the long-term forecasters were on the money: the economy is significantly smaller than it would otherwise have been, trade has suffered, business investment and productivity growth have stalled, and families are on average thousands of pounds a year worse.

Charlie Bean, a former Bank of England deputy governor, who reviewed the Treasury forecasts, said: “Osborne has a lot to answer for when he was basically saying, ‘Treasury analysis shows – look, there is going to be a deep recession tomorrow.’

“That was really misrepresenting what you could take from [it] and overselling it, obviously to try and win the argument politically. In hindsight, we had the vote and the world didn’t fall off the cliff immediately, and so the Brexiters can say [it] wasn’t worth the paper it was written on.

“But the assessment of the broad long-run was in the right ballpark. We’re poorer than we otherwise would have been.”

The value of the pound swung wildly after the polls closed on 23 June 2016. As Nigel Farage appeared ready to concede defeat , the currency gained. But early leave victories in key locations, including Sunderland , prompted a 10% plunge in the pound on what was its biggest ever one-day fall.