How could El Nino reshape tropical storms around the world this year?
The Atlantic hurricane season has just begun and runs from Monday to November 30 with storm activity peaking in mid-September. During this period, warm ocean waters and atmospheric shifts feed and accelerate tropical storms and hurricanes that mainly threaten the Caribbean and t
The Atlantic hurricane season has just begun and runs from Monday to November 30 with storm activity peaking in mid-September.
During this period, warm ocean waters and atmospheric shifts feed and accelerate tropical storms and hurricanes that mainly threaten the Caribbean and the East and Gulf coasts of the United States.
This year, forecasters at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted a quieter‑than‑usual Atlantic hurricane season, largely due to a phenomenon called El Nino. They see a 55 percent chance of below‑normal activity, a 35 percent chance of near‑normal and a 10 percent chance of above‑normal.
El Nino is the periodic warming of surface sea temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
The resulting disruptions to global wind and rainfall systems can intensify floods, droughts and heatwaves across parts of the world. The weather phenomenon also tends to push global average temperatures slightly higher during its active phase.
El Nino events typically occur every two to seven years and usually last nine to 12 months although some persist longer.
Its counterpart, La Nina, is the opposite, meaning cooler-than-normal Pacific temperatures.
Both are part of a larger climate pattern called ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation), which has three phases, summarised in the graphic below:
