How Lebanon became the breaking point for the Iran war ceasefire

After weeks of warning that continuing Israeli attacks on Lebanon would jeopardise diplomacy, Iran launched its first direct strikes on Israel in two months overnight on Sunday, casting new doubts about the likelihood of a US-Iran peace deal.

While Israel and the US have sought to separate Israel’s occupation of southern Lebanon from the wider US-Israeli war on Iran, Iran has consistently stated that it will not entertain a peace deal that does not extend to Lebanon as well.

Following an initial Israeli raid on the southern suburbs of Beirut on Sunday – despite US assurances last week that Israel would not attack the Lebanese capital as long as Hezbollah refrained from strikes on northern Israel – Iran launched missiles at Israel overnight in retaliation.

“Tonight’s operation was a warning, and if the aggressions are repeated, the responses will be broader and will encompass all American-Zionist targets in the region,” Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) said in a statement.

Israel responded to that by carrying out multiple attacks across Iran on Monday, including the capital Tehran, despite US President Donald Trump reportedly telling Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not to escalate. “I call the shots … he [Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu] doesn’t call the shots,” he told the UK’s Financial Times on Sunday.

Tehran returned fire with a second volley of missiles towards Israel. Iranian missiles have largely been intercepted and no-one has been reported killed in Israel.

Nevertheless, the US president still felt compelled to take to social media later on Monday to remonstrate with both parties. “Israel and Iran must immediately stop ‘shooting’,” he said in a brief post on his Truth Social platform.

After its second wave of strikes, Iran’s armed forces declared an end to operations targeting Israel but warned that further Israeli strikes in Lebanon would be met with “harsher” attacks, Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency reported.