How prediction markets could forecast the future of science

Online prediction markets are taking bets on everything from climate change to quantum computing. But researchers question their accuracy

Prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi have soared in popularity over the past few months. From bets on disease outbreaks to wagers about artificial intelligence, many of their markets relate to science and research. So how do Polymarket’s prediction powers compare to the opinions of subject-matter experts?

In prediction markets, users bet on a future event by buying and selling shares in favour of various outcomes. The price of each share is determined neither by expert opinions nor by the ‘house’ setting odds. Rather, prices are based on demand, reflecting the market’s collective belief in the probability of the outcome.

But as well as providing a gambling platform, prediction markets offer a test of the concept of the wisdom of crowds — the long-held idea that collective predictions by large groups of people tend to be better than forecasts by subject specialists. According to Polymarket’s website, prediction markets can often determine outcomes more accurately than experts or polls because “economic incentives ensure market prices adjust to reflect true odds as more knowledgeable participants join.”

If you're enjoying this article, consider supporting our award-winning journalism by subscribing . By purchasing a subscription you are helping to ensure the future of impactful stories about the discoveries and ideas shaping our world today.

Research has found that prediction markets sometimes outperform other forecasting methods in political elections, but some researchers remain unconvinced that they can rival the work of expert scientists.

Prediction markets are “potentially helpful forecasting supplements” when it comes to science, says Richard Borghesi, who researches finance and prediction markets at the University of South Florida in Tampa. The markets can be useful to gauge how scientific information is received by the public, he says, but they are not “substitutes for models, peer review or expert judgement,” and are less informative when the people trading lack specialist knowledge on the subject.

There are also growing concerns about market manipulation and insider trading on Polymarket and Kalshi. In October last year, Norwegian officials who oversee the Nobel Peace Prize investigated a surge in bets for Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado hours before she was awarded the prize.