I'm Calling It: UPS Is a Buy Before July 15
Written by Reuben Gregg Brewer for The Motley Fool -> United Parcel Service is nearing the end of a long turnaround effort. The company is telling investors that the second half of 2026 will be the start of the upturn. United Parcel Service 's (NYSE: UPS) stock has fallen 50%
United Parcel Service is nearing the end of a long turnaround effort.
The company is telling investors that the second half of 2026 will be the start of the upturn.
United Parcel Service 's (NYSE: UPS) stock has fallen 50% since hitting a high in early 2022. The stock, however, is up 30% from its lows in Oct. 2025. The market is starting to believe the company's turnaround plan is gaining traction. If you wait too long to buy it, you may miss out on the investment opportunity.
Buying UPS before July 15 should get you in before the company reports second-quarter earnings. Those earnings aren't expected to be great reading. But that's not the point. The key here is that UPS has been telling investors that the first half of 2026 would be weak, with the second half coming in stronger.
Will AI create the world's first trillionaire? Our team just released a report on the one little-known company, called an "Indispensable Monopoly" providing the critical technology Nvidia and Intel both need. Continue »
In other words, the end of the second quarter will be the inflection point. It will be the point in time when the industrial giant's financial results start to turn around. There are already important signs of progress, with a steady increase in revenue per piece in the U.S. business being a key sign of the company's early turnaround success.
To be fair, the full year is likely to be roughly flat with 2025, with revenue and operating margin barely budging (though revenue per piece is expected to keep rising, ending up mid-single digits for the year). However, the company believes the trends will shift between the first and second half.
In the first half of 2026, revenues are expected to fall, with margins remaining under pressure. But in the second half, revenues are expected to start growing, with margins improving. The company didn't materially alter its view when it reported first-quarter 2026 earnings in late April. In fact, the CEO doubled down, telling investors that the turnaround effort was still on track. I believe there will be a similarly positive update when the company reports second-quarter earnings.
