Inflation won Trump the presidency, but could cost him the midterms

Trump’s pursuit of policies that drive up prices, including tariffs and war, might be punished in November’s elections

For such an uncannily successful politician, Donald Trump exhibits a perplexing political myopia. His most recent own-goal was endorsing Ken Paxton, a state attorney general, against four-term senator John Cornyn in the Republican primary for Senate in Texas. Trump’s endorsement helped push the ethically compromised Maga firebrand over the top, to run against popular Democrat James Talarico in November, complicating the Republicans’ chances to keep the seat.

But what truly screams “I want us to lose the midterms” is what Trump is doing about inflation, which is becoming his most vulnerable issue. According to a New York Times/Siena poll of registered voters earlier in May, Trump’s approval on handling the cost of living is underwater by 42 percentage points, poorer than his rating on handling the economy (minus 31 points) and the unpopular war in Iran (minus 34 points).

It’s not unusual that one of his most effective weapons in defeating Kamala Harris in 2024 has been turned against him now that he is running things. What’s truly astonishing is how Trump seems willing to build a track record of inflationary policymaking. He seems to have decided that whatever fork appears in his path, he must take the one that leads to higher prices.

The list of inflationary gambits probably starts with the round of “reciprocal” tariffs Trump unleashed in April of last year, which he tweaked, rejiggered, raised, cut and dropped after the supreme court told him to. A report by the Yale Budget Lab concluded that tariffs boosted the price of durable goods by up to 3.8% in the 13 months to January of 2026.

Trump got lucky. Importers stocked up on imports in late 2024 and early 2025, in anticipation of his tariffs. Even when the tariffs hit, they absorbed the higher costs via compressed margins. Moreover, the fast-rising prices of goods were masked by falling inflation in services, which were not hit by the levies.

He has also been lucky, so far, with his mass deportation campaign, which has not yet done much to reduce employment in immigrant-heavy industries such as food processing, construction, childcare and health services. As deportations continue, a more limited supply of workers is expected to push up wages and feed into higher prices .

And that’s where the luck ends. Notable was his decision last year to end the enhanced subsidies for health insurance under the Affordable Care Act. Insurance premiums have jumped 58% on average , according to the Kaiser Family Foundation. Deductibles increased 37%, on average, to a record $3,706. Altogether, KFF estimated, up to 6 million Americans could drop their insurance this year.