Investor Chris Camillo Predicts The ‘Last Easy Trade’ of the AI Supercycle Is About to Start

Chris Camillo says the AI supercycle’s Wave 3 “efficiency wave” (companies using AI to cut costs) is the “last easy trade” that investors have not fully priced in.

Camillo expects Wave 3 winners to come from cost-heavy businesses with large customer service, admin, and logistics workforces that drive operating margin expansion.

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Retail investor Chris Camillo, host of the Dumb Money Live channel and a practitioner of what he calls "social arbitrage," laid out a sweeping framework for the AI investment cycle on a recent episode of The Iced Coffee Hour with hosts Graham Stephan and Jack Selby. His core argument was simple. The first two phases of the AI boom already created massive winners, but the next phase may produce the clearest investment setup yet.

Camillo believes the “last easy trade” of the AI supercycle is about to begin, and he says he has spent roughly three years waiting for it.

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Wave 1 was the moment AI became consumer-facing. Large language models suddenly showed people that AI could write, reason, and interact in ways that felt dramatically different from earlier software tools. That triggered the first wave of excitement across the market.

Wave 2 focused on the infrastructure needed to support that demand. Hyperscalers ramped capital spending, GPU demand exploded, the data center construction accelerated, and power infrastructure became a bottleneck. J.P. Morgan estimates that data center capital expenditures now equal roughly 1.2% to 1.3% of GDP, levels that resemble those of previous infrastructure booms.