Iran after 100 days of war: The triumph of survival

Academic and senior political analyst specializing in Iran and Middle East Politics.

It has been 100 days since the United States and Israel attacked Iran in a coordinated campaign aimed at regime change. Since April, a tenuous ceasefire has been in place – one that has been regularly violated by exchanges of fire. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed while fighting in Lebanon continues.

At this point, peace remains elusive as both sides’ objectives remain unfulfilled. Washington and Tel Aviv’s goal has been not just to eliminate the Iranian nuclear programme but also to degrade the Iranian security and military apparatus and thereby create space for internal political change.

For Tehran, the main objective has been to preserve the governing system and ensure its continuity, regardless of the cost. In this sense, it sees itself as having the upper hand.

The war has taken the lives of more than 3,400 Iranian citizens, including dozens of senior leaders in the political and military spheres. It has made it clear that Iran is unable to protect its leadership, arsenal, or nuclear programme.

Within the first two weeks of the conflict, Iranian missile and drone attacks decreased by 90 percent, as US and Israeli operations destroyed launchers faster than they could be replaced, revealing the limitations of a deterrent developed over two decades.

The nuclear programme, already damaged in the 12-day war in 2025, was targeted with more strikes. Civilian infrastructure and energy facilities were also damaged and destroyed. The economy, which was already suffering before the start of the war, has taken another dip.

Meanwhile, the network of allied forces cultivated by Tehran across the region continues to weaken. By targeting sites in Gulf states hosting US forces, Iran has further alienated neighbours it had attempted to engage in the past.