Iran betting Trump 'doesn't have the stomach to go back to full-scale war'
The United States and Iran traded strikes on July 9 for the second day running as Washington and Tehran battled over the strategic Strait of Hormuz. Explosions were also heard in Bahrain, Qatar and Ku
The United States and Iran traded strikes on July 9 for the second day running as Washington and Tehran battled over the strategic Strait of Hormuz. E
Read Full Story at France 24 →Why This Matters
The latest escalation in the Strait of Hormuz underscores Iran’s calculated risk-taking in testing American resolve under a potential second Trump administration. By probing Washington’s willingness to escalate beyond targeted strikes, Tehran appears to be gambling that Trump’s aversion to prolonged conflicts could be exploited to further its regional influence. This dynamic could redefine deterrence calculus in the Persian Gulf, where miscalculation risks sparking a wider conflagration.
Background Context
Iran’s strategy in the Strait of Hormuz dates back to the 1980s Tanker War, where it targeted shipping during the Iran-Iraq conflict to pressure international powers. Today, Tehran leverages proxy forces like Yemen’s Houthis and Iraqi militias to conduct asymmetric strikes while maintaining plausible deniability—a tactic that complicates direct U.S. retaliation. The region’s economic lifeline, through which 20% of global oil passes, makes it a prime pressure point in Tehran’s broader confrontation with Washington.
What Happens Next
Iran may intensify its "gray zone" attacks to probe U.S. responses, particularly if Trump’s campaign rhetoric suggests a preference for de-escalation over sustained military engagement. Washington’s next move—whether further strikes, diplomatic pressure, or a measured response—will signal its commitment to deterrence. Regional allies like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, already wary of U.S. reliability, may recalibrate their own security strategies accordingly.
Bigger Picture
This flare-up reflects a broader pattern of Iran’s "maximum pressure" campaign, which has repeatedly tested the limits of U.S. patience without triggering full-scale war. As Trump’s potential return to the White House looms, Iran’s calculations suggest a belief that his administration would prioritize domestic concerns over military escalation. The episode also highlights the growing role of proxy warfare in Middle East conflicts, where direct confrontation is increasingly avoided in favor of indirect, deniable strikes.
