Iraq begins high-stakes security balancing act as US troops withdraw

Iraq is set to hold four “Sovereignty Days”, a national holiday marking the complete withdrawal of US troops from the country and underscoring the deep symbolism of the exit after more than two decades of foreign intervention.

Wednesday’s withdrawal deadline affirmed the exodus of a few hundred remaining US soldiers in the country, who have served in advisory roles in a coalition operation against ISIL (ISIS) first launched in 2015.

While the exit plan predates Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi, it fits into his wider vision of reasserting Iraqi state authority. That encompasses accelerating efforts to disarm all militias in the country by June 2027, including several powerful pro-Iran groups who have launched attacks throughout the region amid the US-Israeli war with Iran.

Speaking at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) last week, al-Zaidi said his government was “striving to ensure that the state is the ultimate decision-maker in matters of peace and war, and that weapons and tools of power remain in the hands of its constitutional institutions”.

He added, “With the end of the international coalition’s mission in Iraq, we are moving our relationship with our strategic partners to a new phase, moving from military cooperation to economic and development cooperation in service of our common interests.”

Indeed, the US withdrawal appears to be part of a strategy by al-Zaidi to “politically weaken” influential militias , including those linked to Iran, according to Douglas Silliman, the former US ambassador to Iraq and Kuwait.

Those militias have long pointed to the presence of the US military, and other foreign actors like Turkiye, as a pillar justification for maintaining their own weapons stores and chains of command. Some have already indicated they will refuse to hand over their arms.

“The prime minister is clearly trying to build a political case to Iraqis that these forces that are more beholden to Iran, and have used weapons without government authorisation, no longer have a political reason to have those weapons,” said Silliman, who serves as president of the Arab Gulf States Institute.