Intuit cuts TurboTax forecast by $25M, plans 17% layoffs
Intuit cut its TurboTax revenue forecast by $25 million due to a 30-basis-point drop in IRS filings, while also planning to lay off 17% of its workforce to focus more on AI-driven financial tools. Investors are betting on Intuit’s AI strategy to drive future growth, despite current challenges.
Intuit slashed its TurboTax revenue forecast after seeing a nearly 30-basis-point drop in IRS filings this season, cutting its annual guidance by about $25 million. The company now expects TurboTax revenue between $5.277 billion and $5.282 billion, down from its earlier range of $5.305 billion to $5.330 billion. Analysts reacted quickly: Mizuho downgraded Intuit’s price target from $600 to $500, though it kept an “Outperform” rating. The revision comes after TurboTax Live revenue jumped 36% to $2.8 billion in the fiscal third quarter, now making up 53% of total TurboTax revenue, with customer growth accelerating 38%.
Intuit isn’t just adjusting numbers—it’s overhauling its business. The company plans to cut 17% of its full-time workforce as part of a restructuring aimed at simplifying operations and sharpening focus on AI-driven tools. Intuit builds financial software for consumers, accountants, and small businesses, and has been leaning heavily into artificial intelligence to automate tax prep, payroll, and bookkeeping. While the workforce reduction may hurt morale short-term, the move signals a bet on smarter, leaner systems—especially as AI tools like TurboTax Live become central to growth.
But the big question is whether Intuit can justify a 10x stock surge by 2030. The company’s core tax business faces pressure from IRS Free File programs and increased competition, while its broader push into AI and financial automation could open new revenue streams. Still, with global economic uncertainty and shifting tax policies under different administrations, Intuit’s growth isn’t guaranteed. Some analysts argue that other AI-focused stocks might offer higher upside with less risk right now.
What makes Intuit interesting isn’t just its past performance—it’s the bet that AI will transform how people and small businesses manage money. If Intuit’s AI tools can cut costs, improve accuracy, and attract more users, the stock could rebound strongly. But investors will be watching closely as the restructuring plays out and the next tax season approaches. The next few quarters will tell whether Intuit’s gamble pays off—or if the stock remains stuck in restructuring mode.
