Keir Starmer aides ‘war gaming’ leadership contest with Andy Burnham

Prime minister is ‘hellbent’ on fighting any contest, even if his future may be out of his hands, sources say

Keir Starmer’s closest aides are “war-gaming” how to win a leadership contest ahead of Andy Burnham’s much-anticipated return to Westminster if he wins the Makerfield byelection , the Guardian understands.

Downing Street sources said the prime minister had taken the last fortnight to think seriously about his future but was now “hellbent” on fighting any contest. His team is working through various scenarios, including sacking ministers who publicly support Burnham.

However, several close allies acknowledged that Starmer’s future may be out of his hands. “Keir may be determined to fight any challenge. But when it comes to it, he might not have a choice. As one former prime minister put it , when the herd moves, it moves,” a loyalist minister said.

They said Starmer was self-aware enough to stand aside should he get closer to the general election and feel that Labour could not win against Reform with him at the helm, but could with somebody else, but added: “He’s not there yet.”

Burnham said last week that he would seek to join any potential Labour leadership contest should he beat Reform in the byelection next week and return to Westminster, but has not ruled out challenging Starmer himself if it should come to it.

So the prime minister’s team – despite a degree of scepticism – is preparing. One senior aide said: “Maybe it is over. But if so, Keir’s not going without a fight. Our plan is to be more Harry Truman and less Joe Biden .”

Steve Reed, one of the cabinet ministers most loyal to Starmer, said he was convinced the prime minister would fight any leadership contest, and should even offer Burnham a job should he win in Makerfield.