Krišjānis Kariņš's New Unity party leads Latvia's election with 34% votes

Latvia’s ruling New Unity party, led by Prime Minister Krišjānis Kariņš, surged ahead in Saturday’s parliamentary election, according to partial results that gave the pro‑Ukraine, pro‑Europe list a 34 percent share of the vote – a margin far larger than most pollsters had expected. The same data showed the centrist partners in the current coalition, Development/For! and the National Alliance, lagging behind, meaning Kariņš will likely have to rebuild his governing bloc.

The election comes at a moment when Latvia’s foreign policy is under intense scrutiny. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the Baltic state has been one of Kyiv’s most vocal supporters in the EU, pushing for military aid, sanctions and a swift NATO response. Domestically, the three‑party coalition that has ruled since 2019 has struggled with internal disputes over budget reforms and immigration policy, and public fatigue with what many voters see as a stagnant political centre. The unexpected swing toward New Unity reflects both a desire for continuity in the Ukraine‑supportive stance and a backlash against perceived compromises made by the junior coalition partners.

Election officials said that, if the final count holds, New Unity will need to secure at least 51 seats in the 100‑member Saeima to command a majority. Development/For! is projected to win around 13 percent, while the National Alliance appears to be hovering near 9 percent, far short of the 20‑plus seats it held after the 2018 vote. Opposition parties, including the left‑leaning Harmony and the right‑wing Latvian Russian Union, have called for a “stable and responsible” government that can keep the country’s EU and NATO commitments intact. EU diplomats in Riga welcomed the clear mandate for a pro‑European government but warned that coalition talks could be protracted if the smaller parties demand policy concessions.

Kariņš has said he will begin talks with potential partners within days, emphasizing that any new coalition must preserve Latvia’s support for Ukraine and its fiscal discipline. Political analysts expect a series of informal meetings over the next two weeks, followed by a formal coalition agreement before the new Saeima convenes in early December. The outcome will shape Latvia’s role in the EU’s eastern policy and could influence the broader balance of power in the Baltic region as the war in Ukraine drags on.