Lula or Bolsonaro as president? Brazil gears up to vote

Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva spoke in no uncertain terms at the opening of the UN General Assembly on Tuesday in New York: "Brazil does not belong in anyone's backyard," the Brazilian president said. His comment was directed at his US counterpart Donald Trump, despite Trump not being in attendance.

The US president has repeatedly interfered with Brazilian domestic politics, siding with former President Jair Messias Bolsonaro and the far-right opposition. In July, Trump imposed sanctions on a judge who found Bolsonaro guilty of attempting a coup and sentenced him to 27 years in jail. Washington only lifted the sanctions after negotiating with Lula .

Bolsonaro's eldest son Flavio is Lula's biggest challenger in the upcoming presidential election on October 4, and polls currently show the two of them to be neck and neck in a potential runoff.

The election in the world's fifth largest country is drawing a great deal of international attention. Brazil is an agricultural giant and very rich in natural resources — boasting rare earth elements , vast water resources and enormous crude oil reserves.

Lula is the "last man standing" of the South American left, while Flavio Bolsonaro is part of an increasingly strong far-right camp . Argentina , Bolivia, Peru, Chile, Ecuador and Colombia all have governments that are sympathetic to Trump. And since January, Venezuela has been what some describe as a US protectorate.

Foreign policy hasn't played a big role in the campaign, but this election will nonetheless decide whether Brazil moves closer to Trump's US. Washington is seeking economic and military dominance in South America through the Shield of the Americas initiative, focused on combating violent cartels. After his military intervention in Venezuela, Trump is now exerting economic pressure on Mexico and Cuba. At the same time, he is trying to counter Chinese influence in the region.

For his part, Lula is an advocate of multilateralist diplomacy, wanting Brazil to engage in dialogue and trade with everybody. China has long been Brazil's most important trading partner.

Flavio Bolsonaro favors a conservative alliance with the US and other right-wing states. But for Leonardo Paz from the Brazilian Fundacao Getulio Vargas think tank, a Bolsonaro victory would not necessarily automatically mean better relations with the US. He told DW that Lula had established a largely normal relationship with Trump — both are 80 years old — despite some initial friction. The two leaders got along well, said Paz, even if Lula has not succumbed to Trump's pressure.