Micron Trades at 6 Times Next Year's Earnings. The $38 Billion of Capacity That Ends This Cycle Doesn't Open Until 2028.

Micron's fiscal third-quarter revenue more than quadrupled year over year to $41.5 billion.

SK Hynix just committed about $38 billion to two fabs whose first clean rooms open in December 2028 and June 2029.

Micron has signed 16 take-or-pay customer agreements with terms running through calendar 2030.

Memory specialist Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU) trades near $878 as of this writing, at about 20 times its trailing earnings but only about 6 times the earnings analysts expect over the coming year. Earnings are climbing so fast that next year's expected number dwarfs the trailing one. And the market is paying about 6 times for it because it assumes the good times end soon.

Memory has always worked that way: High prices attract new supply, and new supply ends the boom.

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But last Friday, the supply that is supposed to end this one got a price tag and a schedule. SK Hynix committed about $38 billion to two new fabs -- and the first of them doesn't open a clean room until December 2028.

The earnings the market is discounting are not hypothetical. In its fiscal third quarter (ended May 28, 2026), Micron's revenue more than quadrupled year over year to $41.5 billion, up from $23.9 billion just one quarter earlier. Gross margin ran 84.6%, compared to 74.4% in fiscal Q2 and 37.7% a year ago. Operating cash flow, meanwhile, more than quintupled year over year to $25.4 billion.