Middle East live: Revolutionary Guards strike Kuwait and Bahrain after broken ceasefire
Explosions were heard in Bahrain and Kuwait's air defences intercepted "hostile missile and drone attacks" after US President Donald Trump deemed the US-Iran ceasefire "over." The blasts followed a vo
Explosions were heard in Bahrain and Kuwait's air defences intercepted "hostile missile and drone attacks" after US President Donald Trump deemed the
Read Full Story at France 24 →Why This Matters
The sudden resumption of hostilities between Iran-backed factions and regional U.S. allies underscores how fragile Middle Eastern ceasefires have become when political signals from Washington are inconsistent. This escalation risks dragging multiple Gulf states into a wider conflict, where even limited exchanges could destabilize global energy markets and redefine the balance of power in the Persian Gulf.
Background Context
Kuwait and Bahrain, both hosting U.S. military installations, have long been seen as primary targets for Iranian retaliation due to their alignment with Washington’s policies. The Revolutionary Guards’ strike follows a pattern of asymmetric warfare where Tehran uses proxy forces to avoid direct confrontation while probing the resolve of regional rivals and their patrons in the U.S. administration.
What Happens Next
The immediate concern is whether Riyadh, Doha, or others in the Gulf Cooperation Council will be drawn into retaliatory action, potentially fracturing the fragile cohesion of the anti-Iran bloc. Meanwhile, oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz—already a flashpoint—face heightened risk of disruption, which could send global fuel prices surging within weeks.
Bigger Picture
This episode fits a broader trend of Iran’s "forward defense" strategy, where proxies like the Houthis or Iraqi militias are used to extend Tehran’s deterrence without triggering direct war. With U.S. domestic politics increasingly focused on disengagement, regional actors may increasingly test the limits of American commitment, risking a cycle of escalation that neither side can fully control.
