Mohamed El-Erian says 30-year Treasury yield at 5.27% signals a structural shift that will make America more expensive

For economist Mohamed El-Erian, sky-high interest rates on U.S. bonds are the harbinger of an even greater affordability crisis.​

"This is no ordinary bond-market sell-off," El-Erian announced in his latest opinion piece for The New York Times . The former PIMCO CEO argued that, if selling pressure on bonds continues, "it could mark the beginning of a structural economic shift more enduring and more globally consequential than most previous episodes of market volatility."

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Despite the U.S. Treasury's announcement to ramp up its long-term bond buyback sizes to $4 billion, selling hasn't abated. Currently, the U.S. 30-year Treasury has a yield of 5.27% , a level El-Erian notes was last seen in 2007. The 10-year and five-year bonds are also both climbing, currently at 4.736% and 4.426%, respectively.

With the national debt crossing the $40 trillion threshold , those high percentages translate to humungous piles of money.

According to the latest data from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) , net interest on public debt for fiscal year 2026 is now $963 billion. That makes paying off interest second only to Social Security in yearly government spending.​