Montana’s Tester faces Monday deadline to withdraw

Montana’s Democratic Senate candidate, Jon Tester, faces growing pressure to withdraw from the race before Monday’s deadline to avoid splitting the anti-Republican vote.

Tester, a three-term incumbent, is leading in polls but could hand the seat to Republican Tim Sheehy if a third-party candidate siphons off Democratic support. Montana’s independent-minded electorate has twice backed Tester, but this year’s tight race and the rise of political newcomer Don Kavaric—a libertarian-leaning outsider—have raised fears of a spoiler effect. Kavaric, polling around 10%, draws support from disaffected Democrats and independents, threatening to pull votes from Tester without a clear path to victory.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has not publicly urged Tester to step aside, but party strategists privately acknowledge the risk. Tester’s campaign insists he’s staying in, pointing to his strong ground game and Sheehy’s weak polling numbers. Yet the clock is ticking: Montana’s deadline to withdraw is midnight Monday. If Tester stays, Kavaric could play kingmaker—like Libertarian candidate Doug Maughan did in 2022, when his 6% finish helped unseat Democratic Rep. Kathleen Williams.

If Tester drops out, Democrats would likely back a write-in candidate, possibly former Gov. Steve Bullock, to consolidate the anti-Sheehy vote. A Sheehy win would flip Montana’s Senate delegation red and give Republicans a crucial edge in the 2025 majority fight. The state’s shifting politics—once a swing battleground—now hinges on whether Democrats can unite behind one candidate or risk handing the GOP another Senate seat.