Mortgage rate predictions for the next five years: Where experts believe rates will be
Some offers on this page are from advertisers who pay us, which may affect which products we write about, but not our recommendations. See our Advertiser Disclosure . Mortgage rates have been volatile since the beginning of the Middle East conflict. But where are rates headed in
Some offers on this page are from advertisers who pay us, which may affect which products we write about, but not our recommendations. See our Advertiser Disclosure .
Mortgage rates have been volatile since the beginning of the Middle East conflict. But where are rates headed in the next five years, and should you wait for mortgage rates to fall significantly before buying or refinancing? Mortgage interest rates are determined by several factors , all of which can give us clues about the future. Let’s take a closer look at mortgage rate predictions over the next five years.
One of the most useful indicators for predicting mortgage rates is the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note . Mortgage rates and 10-year Treasury yields typically move in the same direction, although mortgage rates are usually higher because lenders factor in additional risks. This difference between the two is known as the spread, and we’ll account for that when estimating where mortgage rates could go.
With that in mind, the first step is to look at where economists believe Treasury yields are headed over the next five years. To build a forecast, we’ll combine expert economic projections with data compiled using artificial intelligence .
Michael Wolf, a global economist at Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Ltd., outlined the firm’s Treasury yield expectations over the next five years in a December update from the Deloitte Global Economics Research Center .
"We assume the Fed leaves rates unchanged until December 2026. The average federal funds rate reaches its neutral 3.125% in the middle of 2027," he wrote. Wolf said the 10-year Treasury yield will ease gradually through the second quarter of 2027, "to settle at 3.9% from the third quarter of 2027 through the end of 2030."
Other forecasts point to somewhat higher long-term yields. For example, Goldman Sachs analysts expect the 10-year Treasury to rise over the long term to 4.5% by 2035.
Meanwhile, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that the 10-year Treasury yield will reach 4.1% by the end of 2026, rising gradually to about 4.3% by 2030.
