Nebius valued at $48.6 billion, 55x revenue

Nebius Group, a fast-growing AI cloud provider, is now worth $48.6 billion—about 55 times its revenue over the past year—despite reporting just $877.9 million in sales. The company’s stock market valuation has surged as it rapidly expands, with its AI cloud revenue jumping 841% year over year to $390 million in the first quarter alone. But the valuation hinges on future expectations, not past performance. At its current size, the 55x revenue multiple is high even for a tech company. Yet Nebius is spending big—planning $25 billion in capital expenses this year alone—to keep growing.

The real question is what investors are actually paying for. Nebius’s trailing revenue figure includes months when the company was far smaller, making the 55x multiple misleading. Instead, the company points to its annualized run rate, which hit $1.9 billion at the end of March—a 674% jump from a year ago. Management expects revenue to reach $3 billion to $3.4 billion this year and $7 billion to $9 billion by the end of 2026. If those targets hold, the company’s valuation drops to around 15x projected sales for this year or just six times its exit run rate. That’s still steep, but far less extreme than the 55x figure suggests.

The numbers suggest Nebius is already profitable in its core AI cloud business, reporting a 45% adjusted EBITDA margin in the first quarter. The company forecasts a 40% EBITDA margin for the full year, though overall margins are dragged down by smaller, less profitable units. Still, the growth story is undeniable: annualized revenue has nearly doubled every three months. The challenge now is execution. Nebius has locked in over 3.5 gigawatts of power contracts and is racing to scale up, but pulling off its ambitious targets will require massive spending and flawless execution.

Investors are betting Nebius can deliver on its promises—or at least come close. The market is pricing in confidence that the company’s growth will justify its valuation. But with such high stakes, even small missteps in capital allocation or execution could derail the plan. The next year will show whether Nebius’s bet on AI cloud dominance is a visionary leap or a gamble on unsustainable growth.