Rafique warns Clarity Act unlikely, Bitcoin rally overpriced

OKX’s head of institutional research, Benjamin Rafique, said he doubts the U.S. Clarity Act will become law, warning that the market has already priced in any potential optimism around the bill.

The Clarity Act aims to bring clearer rules for crypto firms operating in the U.S., reducing uncertainty that has pushed many businesses offshore. Rafique told CoinDesk that while the bill sounds promising, he sees little chance of it passing amid a divided Congress. He added that even if it gains traction, the positive impact on bitcoin prices has already been absorbed by traders. Rafique pointed to past cases where crypto-friendly legislation was discussed but ultimately stalled, leaving markets unmoved.

The warning comes as bitcoin’s price has climbed more than 50% this year, partly driven by hopes of regulatory progress. Rafique argued that investors are too optimistic, pricing in potential outcomes before they materialize. He also highlighted that institutional adoption is growing regardless of U.S. policy, reducing the urgency for a breakthrough. Meanwhile, smaller exchanges are still struggling under regulatory pressure, while major players like Coinbase and Binance.US continue to push for clearer rules.

If Rafique is right, the next few months could see bitcoin’s price stall as the Clarity Act fails to advance. That would test how much of the recent rally was based on hope rather than fundamentals. Either way, the debate over crypto regulation is far from over, with global competitors like the EU and UK moving ahead with their own frameworks. The U.S. risks falling behind if Congress doesn’t act soon.