Orange County poll: 72% say homeownership slipping

Orange County residents, across party lines and income levels, say buying a home today is far tougher than it was for their parents. That’s according to the latest UC Irvine–Orange County Poll, which finds 72% of county residents—Democrats and Republicans, renters and owners—agree homeownership is slipping out of reach. The poll, released this month, shows only 38% of Orange County residents under 40 believe they’ll ever own a home, down from 55% just two years ago.

The shift reflects decades of rising home prices outpacing wage growth, especially in coastal California. Median home prices in Orange County have climbed from about $350,000 in 2000 to nearly $1.1 million today, while median household income has grown only from $68,000 to $98,000 over the same period. Tight zoning laws, high construction costs, and limited land supply have choked supply, pushing prices up even as interest rates rise. Generational differences are stark: Baby boomers bought homes when prices were three to four times median income; millennials now face prices six to eight times income.

More than half of renters in the poll say they spend over 30% of their income on rent, a financial strain that delays saving for a down payment. Local officials point to recent state laws like SB 9 and SB 10 as attempts to ease barriers, but development remains slow. Orange County’s population grew by nearly 300,000 people since 2000, but the housing stock only increased by about 100,000 units. The gap fuels fears that the county’s economic diversity is at risk.

What happens next could reshape the region. If prices keep rising, younger residents may leave for more affordable areas, draining talent from Orange County’s workforce. If housing production accelerates, prices could stabilize—but that would require faster approvals, lower costs, and political will to challenge decades of local opposition to higher-density development. The poll signals a quiet consensus: the American dream of homeownership is no longer guaranteed in Orange County.