Republicans target Fetterman, Barnes over inflation fears

Republicans are betting that progressive Democratic primary winners will help them win November’s midterms, but a souring economy may make their strategy harder to pull off.

The GOP has spent months tying Senate hopefuls like John Fetterman in Pennsylvania and Mandela Barnes in Wisconsin to national progressives like AOC and Bernie Sanders, arguing their policies are too far left to win swing states. Ads hammer these Democrats on taxes, crime and energy while ignoring their own Senate candidates’ positions on abortion and election denial. The tactic worked in 2020 when moderate Democrats outperformed the party’s base in key races, but the economic mood has shifted sharply since. Inflation, gas prices and recession fears now top voter concerns, giving Republicans less room to pivot from pocketbook issues to culture wars.

Polls show inflation is the top issue for one in three voters and that independents are souring on progressive priorities like the Green New Deal and Medicare for All. Even in deep-blue states, Democratic incumbents like Senator Alex Padilla in California and Representative Katie Porter in California’s 47th district are pivoting to kitchen-table messages, emphasizing affordability and small-business relief. Meanwhile, Trump-backed Senate hopefuls like Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania and JD Vance in Ohio have struggled to match their Democratic opponents’ fundraising, leaving the GOP with fewer resources to define the race. The Cook Political Report now rates races like Nevada and Georgia as toss-ups, suggesting the economy, not ideology, is the bigger drag on Democratic prospects.

If inflation stays high through the fall, the GOP’s gamble on progressive bogeymen could backfire. Democrats are already airing ads tying Republicans to Trump’s economic record and the Jan. 6 insurrection, hoping to reframe the election as a referendum on the former president rather than a choice between policy extremes. A late-summer or October economic shock—like a spike in gas prices or a stock-market dive—could erase any gains Republicans have made tying their opponents to the national progressive base. The outcome will hinge on whether swing-state voters see the election as a judgment on the economy or a battle over the future of the Democratic Party.