Predicting the biggest World Cup upsets in the 2026 group stage

The World Cup never goes according to plan. While fans and pundits might be looking ahead to the knockout round and assuming the biggest favorites will easily advance as group winners, history has shown that there are bumps along the way.

Argentina famously lost its opening match against Saudi Arabia in Qatar before it went on to win the tournament in 2022. France was defending champion when it fell to Senegal in its first game in 2002. We've seen smaller countries Morocco , Turkey, South Korea (with some controversy) and Bulgaria reach the semifinals after knocking out traditional powers.

So where will the surprises come this time? We offer our eight possible upsets in the group stage that could create chaos in the tournament.

Brazil might have the significantly greater World Cup pedigree, but it's Morocco that's been to the semifinals more recently after its surprising run in Qatar. The Atlas Lions might be even more talented this time around with Brahim Diaz of Real Madrid and Aschraf Hakimi of Paris Saint-Germain joined by a slew of contributors playing throughout Europe. Yes, the Brazilians have the star power and will be flashy on the ball. But if they cannot find their way to goals, look for Morocco to be a threat in counter attacks and give Brazil's defense fits.

Japan often gets overlooked because it's not part of World Cup royalty. But it is one of the more difficult opponents to face due to its frenetic style that's high on energy and has several key players playing at some of the bigger clubs in Europe. Facing a European power won't overwhelm Japan. It beat both Germany and Spain in the group stage in 2022 and can take down the Dutch here.

The transition from a golden generation hasn't gone smoothly for Belgium. They crashed out in the group stage in Qatar and were disappointing in the 2024 Euros. Their attack relies mostly on Manchester City winger Jeremy Doku to create chaos and maybe a moment of brilliance from Kevin De Bruyne , who has slowed down at age 34. Egypt's attack is led by a pair of excellent goal scorers in Mohamed Salah and Omar Marmoush . An early tally would put Belgium under pressure and could lead to an upset.

England enters as one of the favorites, partly based on their recent tournament success. However, it is Croatia that has gone deeper in the last two World Cups, including a defeat of the Three Lions in the 2018 semifinals. Many of the veterans from Croatia run, including Luka Modric and Ivan Perisic , are in the twilight of their career. The heat in the United States might be in an issue deeper in the tournament. But with this opening match expected to be indoors in Arlington, Texas, Croatia will be capable of slowing a disjointed England attack and get away with a shocking early result.

This shapes up to be the key matchup in Group A. El Tri has the advantage of playing at home but there are questions about how their pieces fit together. South Korea has several standouts with European pedigree, notably forward Son Heung-min and defender Kim Min-jae , and has the quality to deal a blow to the hosts early in the tournament.