Psyched about the SpaceX IPO? Don't forget the brutal lesson from Facebook's IPO.

The excitement is building around the SpaceX ( SPCX ) IPO, which is set to debut on the Nasdaq Composite ( ^IXIC ) on Friday.

But before you lose your mind trying to buy SpaceX stock on its opening day, keep in mind what happened when Mark Zuckerberg brought Facebook to public markets.

The quick insight: After its IPO on May 18, 2012, Facebook (now Meta ( META )) stock fell 54% from peak to trough and finished its first year down 32%. The S&P 500 ( ^GSPC ) was up 10% over the same period.

The main issue for Facebook was valuation, given its business model. Facebook was priced for perfection at a moment when its core advertising business model was largely unproven, and Wall Street simply got ahead of the fundamentals.

The analysis: Truist chief investment officer Keith Lerner studied 30 of the last major IPOs, which showed forward returns skew negative at the six- and 12-month horizons. The majority face substantial drawdowns in the first year.

The average six- and twelve-month returns for 30 of the last major IPOs both show a decline of 9%.

The biggest 12-month declines include Lyft ( LYFT ) at 65%, Coinbase ( COIN ) at 55%, Robinhood ( HOOD ) at 74%, and Rivian ( RIVN ) at 67%.

Lerner said, "The projected size and retail participation are likely to drive significant volatility alongside excitement around the SpaceX IPO."