Iran, U.S. near Hormuz deal as midterms loom

Vice President JD Vance said on Saturday that negotiators have made “some progress over the last few days” in talks between Iran and Oman aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

The waterway carries about one-fifth of the world’s seaborne oil and has been choked since April when Iran seized an Israeli-linked tanker and threatened to close the route in retaliation for Israeli strikes inside Iran. Earlier this summer, Iran and Oman hosted indirect talks hosted by Oman in Muscat, the first high-level contact since the Gaza war began. The latest round followed reports that Tehran had softened its demand to lift all U.S. sanctions in exchange for a Hormuz truce.

U.S. officials still expect a deal to be fragile. Iran’s supreme leader has said any agreement must include an immediate end to sanctions, while Washington insists Tehran must first halt uranium enrichment and stop arming proxies in the region. Oman’s foreign minister told reporters on Friday that “a small window remains open,” but cautioned that time is short. Vance told Fox News that “tough details” remain, including Iran’s demand to unfreeze $10 billion in assets held abroad.

If a Hormuz deal collapses, global oil prices could spike overnight and the U.S. would face renewed pressure to reimpose “maximum pressure” sanctions on Iran. Democrats are already using the prospect of war in the Gulf as a midterm campaign issue, while Trump-aligned Republicans argue that any deal that does not dismantle Iran’s nuclear program is a surrender. Vance’s comments suggest the White House is trying to keep talks alive just weeks before voters head to the polls, but the risk of a sudden breakdown remains high.