The Federal Reserve Just Released Its August Inflation Forecast, and It Could Put the FOMC on a Collision Course for Its September Meeting

The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland has regular estimates of upcoming inflation data.

After cooling in June, inflation is expected to grow again in July and August.

The extent of the growth, or lack thereof, could make an already fractured Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) even more divided.

The Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) July meeting was divided. Three members dissented in favor of a rate hike, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh made some conflicting statements during his post-meeting press conference. The FOMC's September meeting is now considered a toss-up.

According to CME Group 's FedWatch tool, there's a nearly 55% likelihood the FOMC raises interest rates by a quarter point and roughly a 45% chance the Fed holds rates steady (as of Aug. 6).

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This means that employment and inflation data over the next month and a half will be vital. The Fed recently released its August inflation forecast, and it could put the FOMC on a collision course ahead of the September meeting.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland regularly maintains estimates of various inflation gauges for the upcoming month and, eventually, the month after. These estimates are known as Inflation Nowcasting, a useful resource for investors seeking to monitor inflation.