Three reasons Goldman's co-head of global banking and markets says to stay invested

Goldman Sachs' Ashok Varadhan has a simple message for investors worried about higher interest rates, elevated oil prices and the durability of the economy: Stay invested.

Varadhan, the firm's co-head of global banking and markets, pointed to three reasons for his constructive outlook: He doesn't expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this year, sees oil falling well below $70 a barrel later in 2026 and believes a resilient economy will increasingly benefit from productivity gains tied to artificial intelligence.

"Stay invested would be my advice," Varadhan said in an episode of Goldman's "The Markets" podcast last week.

His view on rates runs against market pricing that has reflected some risk the Fed could resume tightening amid lingering inflation concerns.

"I don't think we will see hikes in the latter part of this year," Varadhan said. "I think rates are going to stay on hold."

Following a disappointing jobs report Friday, traders shifted their bets on when the Fed might hike. Odds for a move in September fell to around 50% Monday and to 63% for October, according to the CME Group's FedWatch gauge of futures prices.

Some of the forces that pushed inflation higher are beginning to recede, including the impact of tariffs, he said. An easing of geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz could further alleviate price pressures.

Varadhan also sees AI eventually becoming a disinflationary force. While the enormous infrastructure buildout needed to support artificial intelligence can strain resources and contribute to inflation in the near term, the productivity benefits should have the opposite effect once that capacity is in place, he said.