Esmail Qaani visits Baghdad to discuss disarmament with Iraqi leaders

Esmail Qaani, the commander of the Quds Force in Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, made an unannounced visit to Baghdad earlier this week to discuss a disarmament plan with Iraqi political and security leaders. The meetings took place on Monday and involved discussions with commanders of Shia paramilitary groups. This visit comes as Iraq approaches a September 30 deadline to restrict all weapons to state control, a key point of contention amid rising tensions.

The urgency of Qaani's visit is rooted in Iraq's ongoing political and security crisis. Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi is under pressure to implement a 2024 agreement with the U.S.-led coalition to withdraw combat forces by the end of September. The Iraqi government aims to consolidate arms under state control, a move that has faced resistance from some powerful Shia factions, including Kataib Hezbollah and Harakat al-Nujaba. These groups have so far refused to disarm, posing a significant challenge to al-Zaidi's administration.

A source within Iraq's Coordination Framework revealed that Tehran, through Qaani, has communicated its opposition to the disarmament of armed factions at this time, highlighting a preference for political compromise over conflict. The Iraqi government is keen to avoid confrontations with these armed groups, which threaten to derail the disarmament efforts. Al-Zaidi has also directed parliament's Security and Defence Committee to draft legislation that would restrict arms to state forces, citing the dangers posed by unregulated weapons.

The situation remains precarious, as the State Administration Coalition, which includes major Shia, Sunni, and Kurdish parties, has labeled armed entities operating outside official institutions as "outlaws." They have hinted at invoking the Anti-Terrorism Law to combat any armed activity that threatens national security following the government's deadline. The outcome of these discussions and the government's disarmament plan could significantly impact Iraq's stability and its relationship with Iran.