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Uh-Oh! The Probability of an FOMC Rate Hike Within the Next Year Is Soaring.

Written by Sean Williams for The Motley Fool -> Although the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite recently hit fresh highs, inflationary risks to the U.S. economy and stock market are growing. U.S. inflation is at a three-year high, driven by a historic e

Uh-Oh! The Probability of an FOMC Rate Hike Within the Next Year Is Soaring.
Nasdaq News โ€” 11 June 2026
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Although the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite recently hit fresh highs, inflationary risks to the U.S. economy and stock market are growing.

U.S. inflation is at a three-year high, driven by a historic energy supply disruption from the Iran war.

A forecasting tool from CME Group strongly suggests interest rate hikes are on the horizon.

Earlier this month, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI) , S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) , and Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) blasted to record highs. However, the performance of Wall Street's major indexes doesn't always reflect underlying economic uncertainty.

Inflation poses a real risk to the U.S. economy and Wall Street โ€“ and it's something new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh may be forced to tackle early in his tenure .

Will AI create the world's first trillionaire? Our team just released a report on the one little-known company, called an "Indispensable Monopoly" providing the critical technology Nvidia and Intel both need. Continue ยป

Kevin Warsh being sworn in as Fed chair. Image source: Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok.

A modest level of inflation is healthy for businesses and the economy. Since January 2012, the Federal Reserve has adopted a 2% long-term inflation target. But since the start of the Iran war, the U.S. inflation rate has been rapidly climbing.

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