Ukraine’s 40-day campaign has not brought the war closer to an end

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s 40-day campaign to “influence” Russia into ending the war expired last week without much fanfare. The campaign involved high-intensity attacks with long-range missiles that were meant to compel Moscow into accepting Ukraine’s terms. But it does not seem to have worked. Russian President Vladimir Putin is still unwilling to make any concessions.

After yet another failed escalation, Kyiv finds itself facing the same unpalatable choice: continue the war and experience catastrophic devastation, or negotiate peace, largely on Putin’s terms.

The Russian president is demonstrating the kind of merciless consistency that has characterised the Russian approach to this conflict since its inception. The longer Ukraine resists, the more damage it suffers. Any attempt at escalation that tangibly hurts Russia results in a response of even higher magnitude.

That’s exactly what happened with Zelenskyy’s campaign. Ukrainian missiles and drones hit Russian oil refineries, precipitating a serious fuel crisis in Russia and an acute one in Russian-occupied Crimea. Lately, Ukrainian forces shifted their emphasis to the logistical hubs of Russia’s online marketplace Wildberries, hoping to undermine a myriad of associated businesses and by extension the banking sector.

These attacks did not bring about the desired results: political unrest and protests against the war. Moscow was able to ease the fuel crisis in recent weeks and enhance air defences at key infrastructure. Wildberries is adapting by moving its logistical hubs to neighbouring Kazakhstan, which is part of the Russia-led customs union.

In response to the Ukrainian “influence campaign”, the Russian army launched brutal strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure, which resulted in the country’s Black Sea ports shutting down. This is having a devastating effect on companies handling Ukraine’s two main export commodities – grain and ore.

Russia also embarked on indiscriminate attacks on logistical hubs belonging to Ukraine’s major retailers, such as Epicentr and Rozetka, resulting in a near-complete loss of business for their politically influential owners. The Russian military also targeted Ukrainian petrol stations and even individual petrol trucks.

Meanwhile, the Russian offensive on the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration in the north of the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine is continuing while the Russian army is building what it calls a “security belt” by grabbing pieces of Ukrainian territory along the Russo-Ukrainian border in the north.