Watch live: Vance says the 60-day negotiating period begins today, after US and Iran sign draft deal

The announcement of a 60-day negotiating period following a draft US-Iran deal marks a pivotal moment in Middle Eastern geopolitics, with implications far beyond the immediate energy markets. For decades, the Strait of Hormuz has been a flashpoint, not just as a chokepoint for global oil flows—through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s petroleum transits—but as a symbolic battleground between Washington and Tehran, even when tensions were not at their peak. The fact that 12.5 million barrels have already passed through this waterway under the framework of a preliminary accord suggests that both sides may be testing the waters for a more durable arrangement, one that could ease sanctions pressure on Iran while preventing further regional escalation. This development does not occur in a vacuum. The draft deal follows years of indirect negotiations, stalled agreements, and occasional military confrontations, including drone strikes on shipping and reciprocal seizures of vessels. The Biden administration’s approach has been notably different from its predecessor’s "maximum pressure" strategy, prioritizing de-escalation over confrontation. Yet the path forward remains fraught with skepticism, both domestically and among US allies in the Gulf. Saudi Arabia and the UAE, long wary of Iranian expansionism, may view any US-Iran thaw with apprehension, potentially pushing them closer to alternative security arrangements or deeper ties with China and Russia. What happens next hinges on whether this 60-day window yields substantive progress or merely another cycle of stalled talks. Iran’s leadership faces internal pressure to secure sanctions relief amid economic strain, while the US must balance diplomacy with domestic political realities—some of which oppose any normalization with Tehran. The broader trend here is the recalibration of US foreign policy in the Middle East, shifting from open-ended confrontation to strategic pragmatism. Yet if history is any guide, even tentative agreements can unravel quickly when regional proxies—from Yemen to Lebanon—remain active. The real test may not be the negotiation table, but whether the draft deal can withstand the next regional shock.